Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
